Throughout the last few years, we've seen an array of news posts about the way virtual reality was about to save the classic arcade. The theory goes that the VR equipment is too expensive for home users, so it creates an opportunity for operators to pony up the big bucks to buy it and make their money back by charging a match to play it.
"While many high-end cans were released last year that may bring virtual-reality adventures to your living space, adoption of the technology is still in its earliest days for a lot of reasons--it's still bulky, expensive, and there isn't all that far to do once you've got it on your face. Over two million cans were sent globally in 2016, according to an estimate from market researcher Canalys, yet this figure pales in comparison to the popularity of, say, video game consoles (sales of their top one, Sony's PS4, topped six million throughout the 2016 holiday season ). Consumer virtual reality will probably catch on as prices come down and cans improve. Meanwhile, however, a variety of companies are betting that customers could possibly be pleased to cover a much smaller sum to try out the tech with their buddies at, say, an arcade, theme park, or even bowling alley"
It is tempting to dive into this trap, but from an operator's perspective VR is a terrible thing. Operators are being requested to pay top dollar for tech that is all but guaranteed to plummet in value over the very short term. Other than purchasing a brand new
vehicle and driving it a time, I can't think of a way you could lose money faster between what you pay and what you will have the ability to get for it down the street.
Another limitation for most operators is that while you might be able to supply a space for VR people to wander around in now, as fresh VR tech is introduced, we are likely to find the point expanded from 100 square feet to the entire world. Rather than viewing just the matches in your headset, you'll realize the true world with game play overlayed. Since the tech allows more actual world places to be researched, it is going to earn a cramped arcade look pretty feeble in comparison.
VR is already heading for mass market acceptance, however it is demand isn't being driven by players who wish to pay big buck to play video games, but such as the BETAMAX that came before it, by people who want to watch porn in their houses.
Even if an operator can make just a little bit of money for the upcoming few decades, once VR achieves critical mass, then it is going to crush whatever earnings stream that operators are dreaming of. Do not believe me? Just check out what's happening in China.
Last year, an eye popping 35,000 virtual reality arcades opened up in China. A year later 22,000 of these have closed.
That is an incredible failure rate over such a short period of time and one that should function as a sharp warning to anyone considering investing in the VR games. Maybe Dave and Busters is able to take losses over the games more than Chinese startup arcades, but I doubt most North American operators are going to fare much better with the tech in their match rooms and will just end up in debt at the end of the day.
The issue basically boils down to customers not being prepared to pay a premium to the experience. Tech In Asia, describes the issue perfectly in their article, on the Chinese VR boom and bust.
"Enterprising store owners jumped into VR are finding it impossible to charge fees akin to cinemas or bowling alleys for a VR experience. One VR arcade owner told iHeima he saw excited queues when charging US$1.50 to get a 30-minute session, but everybody vanished as it climbed to US$5. By that sort of revenue it's impossible to pay the rent."
Even if the game was sold out all day,
indoor jungle gym at $1.50 per half hour they're just earning $30 per day. With retail rents in North America running $1 -- $2 a square foot, there's no way to make the math work, even if you suppose that Americans will spend more to play with the matches.
The actual world information flowing in from China must function as a canary in the quarter plantations of North America. Operators who spend large amounts of money on elaborate VR setups will soon find their small VR rooms being replaced by the whole world for a stage. Since the setups get more expensive, smaller and more portable, the digital arcades will look more expensive, bulky and restricted. I'd love to be proven wrong on this one, but I feel that the arcade VR fad is more hype than hope.
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